Melissa Gatto's finishing rate is the number that matters against Ernesta Kareckaite

The setup

UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan lands on Saturday, October 10, 2026 at Meta APEX in Las Vegas, and on the prelims sits Ernesta Kareckaite (6-2-1) against Melissa Gatto (9-3-2) at women's flyweight, scheduled for three rounds.

Our schedule tables list 12 bouts on the card; this one is filed under the prelims. The bout is listed as announced in the PropBetEdge schedule.

The question this preview works through is whether the finishing pattern in our archive makes this a fight that ends early, and what that does to the distance and method markets. PropSports career averages are on file for both fighters.

Tale of the tape

• Record: Ernesta Kareckaite 6-2-1 · Melissa Gatto 9-3-2
• Age: Ernesta Kareckaite 28 · Melissa Gatto 30
• Height: Ernesta Kareckaite 5'9" · Melissa Gatto 5'5"
• Reach: Ernesta Kareckaite 71" · Melissa Gatto 69"
• Stance: Ernesta Kareckaite Orthodox · Melissa Gatto Orthodox
• Listed weight: Ernesta Kareckaite 129 lbs · Melissa Gatto 125 lbs

The 2-inch reach gap in Ernesta Kareckaite's favour (71" to 69") is the tape's headline number; it defines the range each woman is working from. A reach edge of that size matters more when the longer fighter also sets the pace, and here Kareckaite does: 7.28 significant strikes landed per minute against 3.47 for Gatto. Length with output behind it is how rounds get banked from the outside. Both fight orthodox, so lead hands mirror and the rear-hand exchanges are conventional.

Recent form

Ernesta Kareckaite has 4 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 2 wins and 2 losses. None of those wins came inside the distance, a pattern that leans toward the judges. The losses went to the scorecards. Most recently she lost to Regina Tarin by unanimous decision in round 3 on Feb 28, 2026. That puts her 224 days out by fight night.

• L vs Regina Tarin — unanimous decision, R3 (Feb 28, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh)
• W vs Nicolle Caliari — split decision, R3 (Jan 11, 2025, UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2)
• L vs Dione Barbosa — unanimous decision, R3 (May 4, 2024, UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg)
• W vs Carli Judice — split decision, R3 (Sep 27, 2023, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 7, Week 8)

Melissa Gatto has 6 completed UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge archive: 3 wins and 3 losses. Every one of them came inside the distance (3 by KO/TKO). The losses went to the scorecards. She last fought on Apr 4, 2026 and lost to Dione Barbosa by majority decision in round 3. That puts her 189 days out by fight night.

• L vs Dione Barbosa — majority decision, R3 (Apr 4, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Duncan)
• W vs Tamires Vidal — KO/TKO, R3 (May 18, 2024, UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy)
• L vs Ariane Lipski da Silva — split decision, R3 (Jul 1, 2023, UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov)
• L vs Tracy Cortez — unanimous decision, R3 (May 7, 2022, UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje)
• W vs Sijara Eubanks — KO/TKO, R3 (Dec 18, 2021, UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus)

Melissa Gatto ends 100% of archived wins early against 0% for Ernesta Kareckaite; with Ernesta Kareckaite never finished in 4 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Ernesta Kareckaite lands 7.28 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy; Melissa Gatto lands 3.47 at 49%. That 3.81-per-minute gap in Ernesta Kareckaite's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Ernesta Kareckaite absorbs 6.47 per minute with 49% striking defence and Melissa Gatto absorbs 2.67 with 54%.

On the ground, Ernesta Kareckaite averages 0.75 takedowns per 15 minutes at 60% accuracy and defends 81% of attempts against her; Melissa Gatto averages 1.77 at 27% and defends 58%. Ernesta Kareckaite's 23-point takedown-defence edge is the grappling number to weigh: it limits how often the fight leaves the striking exchanges.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level stats exist for 6 archived rounds of Ernesta Kareckaite's: 148 of 382 significant strikes landed (39%), 24.7 per round, 1 of 1 takedowns, 4:58 of control time. Round-level stats exist for 17 archived rounds of Melissa Gatto's: 265 of 533 significant strikes landed (50%), 15.6 per round, 9 of 33 takedowns, 22:54 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the finishing pattern is the strongest signal: Melissa Gatto 3 of 3 archived wins early. The uncertainty is ordinary fight variance rather than missing data. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the fight goes the distance, method of victory and significant strikes markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Ernesta Kareckaite vs. Melissa Gatto · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan · Fighter pages: Ernesta Kareckaite, Melissa Gatto.