Distance: 5-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a volume gap (4.4 vs 2.6 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Ortiz's wrestling (2.5 takedowns per 15) against Griffin's striking is the central exchange: Griffin stops 57% of attempts on record.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Ortiz finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Griffin | Ortiz |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 34 |
| Height | 6′3″ | 6′3″ |
| Reach | 77″ | 74″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Ortiz has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 2.9 strikes per minute.
Favors GriffinGriffin lands 4.4 significant strikes per minute to Ortiz’s 2.6: a real volume gap.
Favors GriffinOrtiz averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes; Griffin has stopped 57% of attempts on record.
Favors GriffinOrtiz has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Ortiz keeps landing takedowns at 2.5 per 15 minutes; if Griffin stays upright, the striking rates (4.4 vs 2.6 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
