Pace: 3.1 vs 0.8 landed / min
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.2 vs 2.5 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (3.8 vs 1.8 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 9 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Koscheck |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 33 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′10″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre has 9 archived five-round fights to Koscheck’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Koscheck has stopped 64% of attempts on record.
Favors KoscheckSt-Pierre lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Koscheck’s 1.8: a real volume gap.
Favors St-PierreKoscheck has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Koscheck stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 1.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
