Grappling: 2.5 takedowns / 15 vs 46% defense
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (2 vs 4.2 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (2 vs 3.8 strikes per minute) and a finishing gap (20% vs 57% of archived wins); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 8-inch reach difference
| Attribute | Serra | St-Pierre |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 32 | 25 |
| Height | 5′6″ | 5′11″ |
| Reach | 68″ | 76″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre holds a 8-inch reach edge (76" to 68"); Serra has to cross distance to land.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Serra has stopped 38% of attempts on record.
Favors SerraSt-Pierre lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute to Serra’s 2: a real volume gap.
Favors St-PierreWatch the first takedown attempt from Serra: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Serra keeps landing takedowns at 2 per 15 minutes; if St-Pierre stays upright, the striking rates (2 vs 3.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
