Danger zone: 2 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (1.2 vs 2.8 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 4 vs 1 five-round fights
| Attribute | Penn | Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 29 | 25 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′7″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Penn has 4 archived five-round fights to Stevenson’s 1; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors PennStevenson averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes; Penn has stopped 74% of attempts on record.
Favors PennPenn has finished 86% of archived wins (4 KO/TKO, 2 submission).
Favors PennStevenson has 2 first-round finishes in the last 5 archived results — the opening minutes carry real finishing risk.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Stevenson keeps landing takedowns at 2.8 per 15 minutes; if Penn stays upright, the striking rates (2.8 vs 2 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
