Distance: 3-inch reach difference
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (0.7 vs 3 takedowns per 15) and a volume gap (3.7 vs 2.1 strikes per minute); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDurability: Hughes finished 4× on record
| Attribute | Alves | Hughes |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 24 | 34 |
| Height | 5′9″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 70″ | 73″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Hughes has been finished 4 times in the archive and absorbs 1.4 strikes per minute.
Favors AlvesHughes averages 3 takedowns per 15 minutes; Alves has stopped 63% of attempts on record.
Favors AlvesHughes holds a 3-inch reach edge (73" to 70"); Alves has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors HughesWatch the first takedown attempt from Hughes: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether Hughes keeps landing takedowns at 3 per 15 minutes; if Alves stays upright, the striking rates (3.7 vs 2.1 landed per minute) take over.
Three rounds only: a slow first round is expensive, and round three is often fought by whoever has the gas tank and the lead on the cards.
