Danger zone: 3 recent R1 finishes
Read matchup Real analysis. Smarter reads. A deeper understanding of the card.
The evidence points to a grappling gap (4.2 vs 1.2 takedowns per 15); that is the read to test in the first five minutes.
Supporting evidenceDistance: 6-inch reach difference
| Attribute | St-Pierre | Penn |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 27 | 30 |
| Height | 5′11″ | 5′9″ |
| Reach | 76″ | 70″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
| Rank | Unranked | Unranked |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
St-Pierre holds a 6-inch reach edge (76" to 70"); Penn has to cross distance to land.
Favors St-PierreSt-Pierre averages 4.2 takedowns per 15 minutes; Penn has stopped 74% of attempts on record.
Favors PennSt-Pierre has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 1.4 strikes per minute.
Favors PennWatch the first takedown attempt from St-Pierre: whether it lands, and how expensive it looks, tells you the shape of the fight.
Rounds two and three turn on whether St-Pierre keeps landing takedowns at 4.2 per 15 minutes; if Penn stays upright, the striking rates (3.8 vs 2.8 landed per minute) take over.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
