Alex Pereira expects Sergei Pavlovich to wrestle, but the UFC 335 data points to a conditional threat

Alex Pereira is not preparing for a pure striking match against Sergei Pavlovich. Sherdog reported that Pereira expects Pavlovich to open aggressively at UFC 335, then turn to wrestling if his punches fail to produce an early finish.

That possibility matters because Pereira and Pavlovich are booked for five rounds at heavyweight on Dec. 12 in Las Vegas. A credible change from punching to takedowns could alter total-round, method-of-victory, round and takedown markets. The key word, however, is credible. Pavlovich’s recorded UFC work identifies wrestling as an occasional secondary option, not an established engine of his offense.

Pavlovich has used wrestling sparingly

Pavlovich has landed two takedowns across 12 archived bouts and 18 rounds. His takedown accuracy sits at 25 percent, with 0.47 takedowns landed per 15 minutes. He has accumulated eight minutes of control and attempted no submissions.

Those numbers do not rule out a tactical adjustment. They do set the burden of proof. For wrestling to become a meaningful betting input, Pavlovich would need to change both his frequency and persistence: more entries after failed punches, more work along the fence and enough control to keep Pereira from resetting at range. One or two reactive attempts would not necessarily change the fight’s scoring or extend it.

Pereira’s defensive record complicates that route. He owns 80 percent takedown defense across 13 archived bouts. Opponents have controlled him for only three total minutes over 33 recorded rounds. Those figures support resistance to casual or poorly connected shots, although they do not answer every heavyweight-specific question. Pavlovich weighs 257 pounds to Pereira’s listed 251, and the database does not contain a direct sample of Pereira defending this particular opponent’s size, pressure and follow-up chains.