Losene Keita’s late UFC 333 entry turns Aaron Pico’s fight into a wrestling test

Losene Keita did not wait for the winner of Aaron Pico’s original matchup. He took the fight himself.

Cageside Press reported that Arnold Allen withdrew from UFC 333 and Keita accepted the replacement assignment against Pico. The three-round featherweight bout remains on Saturday’s main card at Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, giving Keita a 48-day turnaround from his first-round knockout of Muhammad Naimov.

That replacement changes the matchup at its foundation. Pico was booked for a different opponent; he now faces an orthodox striker with a 72-inch reach, two knockdowns across four UFC rounds and no takedowns conceded in the promotion. Keita, meanwhile, moves from calling for the winner to facing the No. 11 featherweight on short preparation.

The market has not treated Keita’s arrival as a coin flip. Pico is available from -137 to -150 across the seven tracked books, while Keita ranges from +112 to +128. Those prices establish the betting question but do not settle it: Can Pico force his wrestling game through the one phase in which Keita’s early UFC numbers look strongest?

Pico’s advantage is activity, not just reputation

Pico has produced 6.16 significant strikes landed per minute in his two archived UFC bouts, compared with Keita’s 3.47. The 2.69-strike-per-minute gap is substantial even before accounting for Pico’s wrestling. He has landed eight takedowns at 50 percent accuracy and accumulated five minutes of control across four recorded rounds.

That combination matters because Pico does not need to win a clean kickboxing match to justify favoritism. Takedown attempts can interrupt Keita’s preferred striking rhythm, create control time and limit the number of planted power exchanges. Even failed entries could change where and how often Keita commits to offense, although the available data do not show how Keita will react to a sustained chain-wrestling attack.