The stored numbers are close enough that this is a fight about execution and adjustments rather than one obvious mismatch.
Opposite stances create an open-side geometry from the first exchange — lead-foot position and the rear-hand lane matter more than usual.
Supporting evidenceExperience: 3 vs 0 five-round fights
| Attribute | Allen | Duncan |
|---|---|---|
| Age | 30 | 31 |
| Height | 6′2″ | 6′2″ |
| Reach | 75″ | 79″ |
| Stance | Orthodox | Switch |
| Rank | #4 Middleweight | #10 Middleweight |
Highlighted rows mark a meaningful factual difference, not an advantage. Unpublished values stay unpublished.
Allen has 3 archived five-round fights to Duncan’s 0; championship rounds are familiar territory for one side.
Favors AllenDuncan holds a 4-inch reach edge (79" to 75"); Allen has to cross distance to land, and opposite stances open the lead-side lane.
Favors DuncanAllen has been finished 2 times in the archive and absorbs 3.8 strikes per minute; Duncan has never been stopped in the stored record.
Favors DuncanWho sets the range in round one: Duncan holds the longer reach, so early success for the shorter fighter usually requires feints and fast entries.
With the stored numbers close, the middle rounds come down to adjustments: who solves the opening read first, with strike defense at 47% and 54%.
Scheduled for five rounds: 25 minutes changes the pace math, and a fighter who banks two early rounds can afford to manage the fourth.
