THIS FIGHT WEEKUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
2-3Record
40.0%Hit rate
-2.66uNet units
-66.4%ROI
L1Streak
0Pending
4 of 5 decided calls currently have a valid frozen lock-time price for ROI.
PropBetEdge UFC · Official live record
Track Record & Past Picks
The permanent public archive. Every officially locked call stays in the record and every official grade stays attached to it. Current picks remain Pro; once a bout is graded, the pick is public for good.
LIVE PBE PICKS TRACKER
Track Record & Past Picks →Every call. Every result. No edits.
Official locked PBE Picks are graded into the ledger as results arrive. Current calls stay Pro; the receipts stay visible.
LIFETIME OFFICIALPBE Algo live record
20-12Record
62.5%Hit rate
-0.70uNet units
-2.7%ROI
L1Streak
0Pending
26 of 32 decided calls currently have a valid frozen lock-time price for ROI.
LAST OFFICIAL RESULTUFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Duncan
LOSS
Matheus Camilovs Jai Herbert
Algo vs MarketWhen the algo and the market disagree, who wins?
PropBetEdge0—Market0
0 decided disagreements
- Agreed
- 3
- Neither / void
- 0
- Pending
- 0
| Lock | Event | PBE | Market at lock | Type | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-09 | Felipe Franco v Brendson Ribeiro | Felipe Franco | Felipe Franco · 76.5¢ | Agree | Agreed · wrong |
| 2026-10-09 | Julius Walker v Gerald Meerschaert | Julius Walker | Julius Walker · 73.5¢ | Agree | Agreed · correct |
| 2026-10-09 | Matheus Camilo v Jai Herbert | Matheus Camilo | Matheus Camilo · 63.5¢ | Agree | Agreed · wrong |
Both opinions are frozen at the algorithm's lock: the market side is the latest market price we recorded at or before that moment (never later). The market's pick is the outcome with the highest Mid-market. Agreements are recorded but never scored; a third outcome winning counts for neither. Market: Kalshi prediction market. Every comparison is permanent.
Permanent archive
Past picks by event
Newest card first. Each event keeps its own record, units and ROI, computed from every official pick on that card. Odds are the price frozen with the prediction at database lock and are never replaced with a later line.
Sat, Oct 10, 2026UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. DuncanGradedOfficial picks5W-L2-3Pending0No decision0Net units-2.66uROI-66.4%Priced4/5
Matheus Camilo vs Jai HerbertPBE PickMatheus Camilo
- Locked odds
- -185 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 9 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-09 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 75.4%band 70-80
- Confidence
- High
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -185 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -190 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-09 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 62.8% · PBE Edge +12.6 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-11 02:01 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Julius Walker vs Gerald MeerschaertPBE PickJulius Walker
- Locked odds
- -290 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.34u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 9 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-09 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 62.3%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -290 · FAV at Bovadabest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -300 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-09 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 71.8% · PBE Edge −9.5 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-10 23:53 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Felipe Franco vs Brendson RibeiroPBE PickFelipe Franco
- Locked odds
- -355 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 9 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-09 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 66.7%band 65-70
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -355 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -375 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-09 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 75.5% · PBE Edge −8.8 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-10 22:25 UTC · ufc_bout_results · SUB
Allen Frye Jr. vs RJ HarrisPBE PickRJ Harris
- Locked odds
- -325 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 9 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-09 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 65.2%band 65-70
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -325 · FAV at FanDuelbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -345 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-09 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 74.4% · PBE Edge −9.2 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-10 22:09 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Alice Pereira vs Daria ZhelezniakovaPBE PickAlice Pereira
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 9 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-09 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 74.7%band 70-80
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-10 21:50 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Sat, Oct 3, 2026UFC 332: Silva vs. WangGradedOfficial picks8W-L4-4Pending0No decision0Net units-0.75uROI-12.4%Priced6/8
Natalia Silva vs Wang CongPBE PickNatalia Silva
- Locked odds
- -205 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.49u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:41 PM ET2026-10-02 16:41 UTC
- Model probability
- 61.2%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -205 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -205 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 64.7% · PBE Edge −3.6 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-04 02:53 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Deiveson Figueiredo vs Payton TalbottPBE PickPayton Talbott
- Locked odds
- -715 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.14u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:41 PM ET2026-10-02 16:41 UTC
- Model probability
- 60.8%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -715 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -750 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 84.7% · PBE Edge −23.9 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-04 01:59 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Ateba Gautier vs Roman KopylovPBE PickAteba Gautier
- Locked odds
- -240 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:41 PM ET2026-10-02 16:41 UTC
- Model probability
- 71.0%band 70-80
- Confidence
- High
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -240 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -250 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 68.5% · PBE Edge +2.5 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-04 00:29 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Imanol Rodriguez vs Alden CoriaPBE PickAlden Coria
- Locked odds
- +124 · DOG
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:41 PM ET2026-10-02 16:41 UTC
- Model probability
- 55.6%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- +124 · DOG at FanDuelbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus +120 · DOG
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 43.6% · PBE Edge +11.9 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-03 23:44 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Damian Pinas vs Andrey PulyaevPBE PickDamian Pinas
- Locked odds
- -550 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.18u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:41 PM ET2026-10-02 16:41 UTC
- Model probability
- 65.7%band 65-70
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -550 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -575 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 81.7% · PBE Edge −16.0 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-03 23:08 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Johnny Walker vs Mick ParkinPBE PickMick Parkin
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-02 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 55.5%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-03 21:43 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Alexander HernandezPBE PickRafael Dos Anjos
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-02 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 55.6%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-10-03 21:10 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Court McGee vs Eric NolanPBE PickEric Nolan
- Locked odds
- -225 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.44u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Oct 2 · 12:42 PM ET2026-10-02 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 58.1%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -225 · FAV at BetMGMbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -225 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-10-02 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 66.4% · PBE Edge −8.3 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-10-03 20:21 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Sat, Sep 26, 2026UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. BarcelosGradedOfficial picks8W-L7-1Pending0No decision0Net units+4.19uROI69.8%Priced6/8
Raul Rosas Jr. vs Raoni BarcelosPBE PickRaul Rosas Jr.
- Locked odds
- -155 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.65u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 76.3%band 70-80
- Confidence
- High
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -155 · FAV at Bovadabest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -157 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 58.7% · PBE Edge +17.6 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-27 02:39 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Norma Dumont vs Ailin PerezPBE PickAilin Perez
- Locked odds
- -143 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.70u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 62.3%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -143 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -160 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 59.2% · PBE Edge +3.1 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-27 01:54 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Rodolfo Vieira vs Robert BryczekPBE PickRodolfo Vieira
- Locked odds
- -155 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.65u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 58.1%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -155 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -169 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 60.3% · PBE Edge −2.2 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-26 23:39 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Rodolfo Bellato vs Christian EdwardsPBE PickChristian Edwards
- Locked odds
- +160 · DOG
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +1.60u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 64.6%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- +160 · DOG at Caesarsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus +154 · DOG
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 37.8% · PBE Edge +26.8 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-26 23:03 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Elves Brener vs Josiah HarrellPBE PickElves Brener
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 70.9%band 70-80
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-26 22:29 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Montel Jackson vs Ricky SimonPBE PickMontel Jackson
- Locked odds
- -205 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.49u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 59.3%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -205 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -215 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 65.6% · PBE Edge −6.3 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-26 22:13 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
John Castaneda vs AlatengheiliPBE PickJohn Castaneda
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 58.6%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-09-26 21:52 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_S
Vanessa Demopoulos vs Yazmin JaureguiPBE PickYazmin Jauregui
- Locked odds
- -900 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.11u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 25 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-25 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 79.2%band 70-80
- Confidence
- High
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -900 · FAV at Caesarsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -950 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-25 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 6 books · market 86.6% · PBE Edge −7.4 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-26 21:18 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Sat, Sep 19, 2026UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2GradedOfficial picks11W-L7-4Pending0No decision0Net units-1.49uROI-14.9%Priced10/11
Joshua Van vs Alexandre PantojaPBE PickJoshua Van
- Locked odds
- -134 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.75u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 64.4%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -134 · FAV at FanDuelbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -137 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 55.4% · PBE Edge +9.0 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-20 04:15 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Arman Tsarukyan vs Mauricio RuffyPBE PickArman Tsarukyan
- Locked odds
- -305 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.33u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 63.1%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -305 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -320 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 72.7% · PBE Edge −9.6 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-20 03:15 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Patricio Pitbull vs Dooho ChoiPBE PickDooho Choi
- Locked odds
- -265 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 73.3%band 70-80
- Confidence
- High
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -265 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -278 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 5 books · market 70.5% · PBE Edge +2.8 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-09-20 02:45 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Gable Steveson vs Sean SharafPBE PickGable Steveson
- Locked odds
- -2100 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 89.6%band 80-100
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -2100 · FAV at DraftKingsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -2500 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 92.0% · PBE Edge −2.4 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-09-20 02:15 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Alonzo Menifield vs Iwo BaraniewskiPBE PickIwo Baraniewski
- Locked odds
- -240 · FAV
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 65.5%band 65-70
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -240 · FAV at Caesarsbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -250 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 68.5% · PBE Edge −3.0 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-09-20 02:00 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_S
Tai Tuivasa vs Robelis DespaignePBE PickTai Tuivasa
- Locked odds
- +451 · DOG
- Result
- LOSS
- Net units
- -1.00u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 57.2%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- +451 · DOG at BetOnline.agbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus +430 · DOG
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 18.0% · PBE Edge +39.1 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · LOSS2026-09-20 00:45 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_S
Michael Aswell vs JooSang YooPBE PickMichael Aswell
- Locked odds
- —
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- —
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 55.9%band 55-60
- Confidence
- Lean
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- No valid lock-time price storedCounts in W-L; excluded from units and ROI
- Market snapshot
- —none
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-20 00:00 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_S
Ryan Gandra vs Ozzy DiazPBE PickRyan Gandra
- Locked odds
- -525 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.19u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 74.1%band 70-80
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -525 · FAV at BetOnline.agbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -550 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 80.9% · PBE Edge −6.7 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-19 23:30 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Edmen Shahbazyan vs Brunno FerreiraPBE PickEdmen Shahbazyan
- Locked odds
- -175 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.57u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 64.1%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -175 · FAV at BetMGMbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -180 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 61.6% · PBE Edge +2.5 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-19 23:00 UTC · ufc_bout_results · DEC_U
Casey O'Neill vs Eduarda MouraPBE PickCasey O'Neill
- Locked odds
- -230 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.43u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 62.8%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -230 · FAV at BetRiversbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -235 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 67.0% · PBE Edge −4.2 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-19 22:28 UTC · ufc_bout_results · SUB
Giga Chikadze vs Joanderson BritoPBE PickJoanderson Brito
- Locked odds
- -410 · FAV
- Result
- WIN
- Net units
- +0.24u
Lock & grading details
- Locked (database clock)
- Sep 18 · 12:42 PM ET2026-09-18 16:42 UTC
- Model probability
- 64.7%band 60-65
- Confidence
- Medium
- Model version
- PBE Fight Model V1pbe-fight-features-v1
- Lock price source
- -410 · FAV at BetOnline.agbest available price in the frozen lock-time snapshot · consensus -420 · FAV
- Market snapshot
- 2026-09-18 16:25 UTCsnapshot · 7 books · market 77.2% · PBE Edge −12.5 pts
Grading revisions
- r1 · WIN2026-09-19 22:08 UTC · ufc_bout_results · KO_TKO
Calibration
How well the stated probabilities held up.
Computed over the full official history, not the events shown above.
32Graded picks
20-12Decided W-L
62.5%Hit rate
0.244Brier score
0.696Log loss
26ROI-priced decisions
Confidence & edge breakdowns
Where the live record is hitting — and where it is not.
These are live official calls only. They are not backtest rows and they are never blended with historical model research.
| Slice | W-L | Hit | Brier | Log loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| High confidence | 2-3 | 40.0% | 0.342 | 0.893 |
| Medium confidence | 14-4 | 77.8% | 0.211 | 0.637 |
| Lean confidence | 4-5 | 44.4% | 0.256 | 0.706 |
| PBE Edge +10 pts or more | 2-3 | 40.0% | 0.277 | 0.754 |
| PBE Edge +3 to +10 pts | 2-0 | 100.0% | 0.135 | 0.457 |
| PBE Edge within 3 pts | 2-3 | 40.0% | 0.430 | 1.163 |
| PBE Edge −3 pts or lower | 11-3 | 78.6% | 0.194 | 0.576 |
| No current market at lock (stale or no line) | 3-3 | 50.0% | 0.217 | 0.620 |
ROI methodology: flat 1-unit stake on each decided call at the best available price captured in that call's frozen lock-time market snapshot. W/L calls without a valid stored price remain in record and hit-rate calculations but are excluded from the ROI denominator. Draws, no contests and voids are excluded from W-L and ROI. Closing-line value remains separate and will only appear when a verified closing snapshot exists.