FIGHT SIMULATOR LABS
Fight Simulator
Model-based matchup simulation using Fight DNA and calibrated fight-state models. Ten thousand simulated fights per matchup, anchored to the PBE Fight Model.
UFC Fight Night: Buckley vs. MalottSat, Oct 17, 2026
Joaquin Buckley vs Mike MalottWelterweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumErin Blanchfield vs Jasmine JasudaviciusFlyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumHighKyle Nelson vs Cristian PérezLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowMarc-Andre Barriault vs Kyle DaukausMiddleweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumLouis Jourdain vs Timmy CuambaBantamweightDNA COVERAGEInsufficientMediumMandel Nallo vs Nate LandwehrLightweightDNA COVERAGELowMediumTanner Boser vs Jhonata DinizHeavyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumJulien LeBlanc vs Nick GalantiMiddleweightDNA COVERAGELowLowJavad Mahjoub vs Joel FaglierHeavyweightDNA COVERAGENo Fight DNANo Fight DNAKatlyn Cerminara vs Mackenzie StillerFlyweightDNA COVERAGEHighNo Fight DNAChad Anheliger vs Steven KoslowBantamweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowMelissa Croden vs Chelsea ChandlerBantamweightDNA COVERAGELowMediumCody Chovancek vs SuYoung YouBantamweightDNA COVERAGEInsufficientLowUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. EvloevSat, Oct 24, 2026
Alexander Volkanovski vs Movsar EvloevFeatherweightDNA COVERAGEHighHighPetr Yan vs Merab DvalishviliBantamweightDNA COVERAGEHighHighLone'er Kavanagh vs Ramazan TemirovFlyweightDNA COVERAGELowLowAlexander Volkov vs Rizvan KunievHeavyweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowAzamat Murzakanov vs Dominick ReyesLight HeavyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumHighAaron Pico vs Losene KeitaFeatherweightDNA COVERAGELowLowNikita Krylov vs Abdul-Rakhman YakhyaevLight HeavyweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowAbus Magomedov vs Cam RowstonMiddleweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowGrant Dawson vs Nurullo AlievLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowColby Thicknesse vs Asaf ChopurovBantamweightDNA COVERAGELowNo Fight DNAUFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. NolanSat, Oct 31, 2026
Renato Moicano vs Tom NolanLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumNick Klein vs Joe KropschotMiddleweightDNA COVERAGELowLowLucia Szabova vs Tainara LisboaFlyweightDNA COVERAGENo Fight DNALowRandy Brown vs Carlos LealWelterweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowYana Santos vs Luana SantosBantamweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumTalita Alencar vs Piera RodriguezStrawweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumRodrigo Sezinando vs Theodor BerggrenWelterweightDNA COVERAGELowLowJean-Paul Lebosnoyani vs Farman HasanovWelterweightDNA COVERAGELowLowAzamat Bekoev vs Andre PetroskiMiddleweightDNA COVERAGELowHighJulian Erosa vs JeongYeong LeeFeatherweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowFrancis Marshall vs Gaston BolañosFeatherweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumUFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. BradySat, Nov 7, 2026
Gabriel Bonfim vs Sean BradyWelterweightDNA COVERAGEMediumHighTatiana Suarez vs Virna JandirobaStrawweightDNA COVERAGEHighHighMantas Kondratavičius vs Wes SchultzMiddleweightDNA COVERAGELowLowBilly Elekana vs Lucas FernandoLight HeavyweightDNA COVERAGELowLowAustin Bashi vs Lucas BrennanFeatherweightDNA COVERAGELowLowKarine Silva vs Gabriella FernandesFlyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumPriscila Cachoeira vs Nina MiloševićBantamweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowKeiichiro Nakamura vs Ollie SchmidFeatherweightDNA COVERAGEInsufficientLowSeokhyeon Ko vs Wellington TurmanWelterweightDNA COVERAGELowMediumJonny Parsons vs Jose HenriqueWelterweightDNA COVERAGELowInsufficientDavey Grant vs Elijah SmithBantamweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowJose Delano vs Murtazali MagomedovFeatherweightDNA COVERAGELowLowGabriel Lorenço vs Alvin HinesHeavyweightDNA COVERAGELowLowUFC 334: Gane vs. HokitSat, Nov 14, 2026
Ciryl Gane vs Josh HokitHeavyweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowKayla Harrison vs Amanda NunesBantamweightDNA COVERAGELowHighCaio Borralho vs Yousri BelgarouiMiddleweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowUros Medic vs Kevin HollandWelterweightDNA COVERAGELowHighBilal Hasan vs Luis GuruleFlyweightDNA COVERAGELowMediumStephen Thompson vs Charles RadtkeWelterweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumDrew Dober vs Chris DuncanLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighMediumJim Miller vs Terrance McKinneyLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowDonte Johnson vs Baisangur SusurkaevMiddleweightDNA COVERAGELowLowBia Mesquita vs Macy ChiassonBantamweightDNA COVERAGELowHighAdrian Yañez vs Juan DiazBantamweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowNazim Sadykhov vs Jefferson NascimentoLightweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowUFC Fight Night: Procházka vs. StirlingSat, Nov 21, 2026
Jiří Procházka vs Navajo StirlingLight HeavyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumAljamain Sterling vs Kevin VallejosFeatherweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowDan Hooker vs Brian OrtegaLightweightDNA COVERAGEHighHighJared Cannonier vs Ikram AliskerovMiddleweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowShamil Gaziev vs Tallison TeixeiraHeavyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumLowJake Matthews vs Tahir AbdullayevWelterweightDNA COVERAGEHighLowAleksandre Topuria vs Santiago LunaBantamweightDNA COVERAGELowLowAsu Almabayev vs Kyoji HoriguchiFlyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumHighAmir Albazi vs Alessandro CostaFlyweightDNA COVERAGEMediumMediumSCHEDULED BOUTUFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev · Sat, Oct 24, 2026 · Light Heavyweight · 3 rounds
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PBE LABS PREVIEW
Simulation results are open to UFC Pro and All Access members during Labs
Members see the anchored win probability, the outcome distribution, goes-distance odds, round volume ranges and a representative simulated path for every upcoming UFC bout and any matchup they build.
How it works
- As-of Fight DNA. Each fighter's striking, grappling, pace and finishing profile, built only from bouts before the fight date.
- Round-level UFC history. Strike, takedown, control and finish components fitted on 4,899 bouts of per-round UFC statistics.
- Opponent interaction. Each round is simulated against the specific opponent, carrying accumulated damage and state into the next round.
- Calibrated outcomes. 10,000 simulated fights, with the winner split anchored to the PBE Fight Model so the two never disagree on who is favoured.
Outputs are probabilities, not certainties. A 60% favourite loses four fights in ten.
Model card
v1.0-rc1Walk-forward 2016–2026, 4,519 bouts (4,149 simulated), each scored only with data and parameters from earlier years. Lower is better on every score.
| Score | Simulator | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Winner Brier | 0.2327 | 0.2328 PBE Fight Model alone |
| Method log loss | 0.9729 | 1.0034 weight-class frequency |
| Goes-distance Brier | 0.2394 | 0.2459 weight-class frequency |
Not shown because they are not yet validated: finish time; round-by-round winners; point estimates for control time, takedowns landed, knockdowns or submission attempts; pace-retention claims.