Why Wes Schultz's takedown defence is the key variable against Mantas Kondratavičius

• L vs Jackson McVey — KO/TKO, R1 (Aug 22, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues)
• W vs Ben Johnston — submission, R3 (May 2, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates)
• L vs Damian Pinas — KO/TKO, R1 (Feb 28, 2026, UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh)
• W vs Mario Mingaj — submission, R1 (Oct 15, 2025, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 9, Week 10)
• L vs Mansur Abdul-Malik — KO/TKO, R2 (Aug 13, 2024, Dana White's Contender Series: Season 8, Week 1)

Wes Schultz is the more recently active of the two (77 days out against 231 for Kondratavičius). Wes Schultz ends 100% of archived wins early against 50% for Mantas Kondratavičius; with Mantas Kondratavičius never finished in 2 archived bouts, that asymmetry is the pattern behind the distance and method markets.

Style and statistical matchup

Mantas Kondratavičius lands 4.97 significant strikes per minute at 65% accuracy; Wes Schultz lands 3.31 at 48%. That 1.66-per-minute gap in Mantas Kondratavičius's favour is a real pace differential: over three rounds it compounds into a scorecard edge unless the lower-volume fighter is landing the more damaging shots. On the other side of the exchange, Mantas Kondratavičius absorbs 1.3 per minute with 57% striking defence and Wes Schultz absorbs 3.96 with 46%. Mantas Kondratavičius is the harder fighter to hit on both measures, which is the profile that makes an opponent's volume less useful than it looks.

On the ground, Mantas Kondratavičius averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes at 60% accuracy and defends 91% of attempts against him; Wes Schultz averages 2.56 at 25% and defends 0%. That is the mismatch in this fight: Mantas Kondratavičius's takedown rate against a 0% defence means Wes Schultz should expect to be tested on the fence early, and the takedown and control markets follow directly from whether Schultz holds. Wes Schultz attempts 3.6 submissions per 15 minutes, the higher rate of the two, so any ground time carries a finishing threat.

All of these are career-to-date PropSports round-statistics snapshots at capture, not as-of figures for this bout: they describe each fighter across every opponent, which is why the archive form above is read alongside them rather than replaced by them.

Round-level PropSports data exists for 3 archived rounds of Mantas Kondratavičius's: 75 of 107 significant strikes landed (70%), 25 per round, 2 of 4 takedowns, 6:06 of control time and 1 knockdown. Round-level PropSports data exists for 7 archived rounds of Wes Schultz's: 85 of 174 significant strikes landed (49%), 12.1 per round, 3 of 18 takedowns, 4:28 of control time and 1 knockdown. Those samples are small and uneven, so they colour the career averages rather than override them.

What could break the angle

Start with what is missing. Mantas Kondratavičius has only 2 archived UFC bouts in the PropBetEdge database, so the form read is thin. Career averages are career-to-date snapshots at capture; they include fights outside this matchup context and are not as-of figures. There is also no odds snapshot in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so nothing above can be checked against a market yet; the read describes what to look for, not where value sits. A late weigh-in miss, a replacement or a change in scheduled rounds would each invalidate parts of it.

Final read

On the data, the fight turns on Wes Schultz's takedown defence against Mantas Kondratavičius's rate: 0% against 2.8 per 15 minutes. The uncertainty is mostly about coverage: archive shorter than 3 bouts for Mantas Kondratavičius. What to monitor: the three-round format holding, the weigh-in, and once a price exists, where the moneyline, fight goes the distance, method of victory, significant strikes and takedowns markets open relative to this read. No model price or market line exists in PropBetEdge data for this bout, so this is not a pick; the Bettor's Edge panel above carries the impact score and the markets connected to the evidence.

Matchup page: Mantas Kondratavičius vs. Wes Schultz · Full card: UFC Fight Night: Cortes Acosta vs. Walker · Fighter pages: Mantas Kondratavičius, Wes Schultz.